The figure shows the air temperature anomaly for Pakistan, based on the calculation of annual anomaly for each grid point. The data is plotted alongside the 10 years moving average of Global temperature anomaly calculated from the CRU data.
The global trend shows the warming of 0.6 C in the 20th century. This warming is not linear, with greatest warming being observed since mid 1970s. The global data shows warming from 1910 to 1945, slight cooling upto mid 1970s and again warming, more than previous episode continued upto the end of data series.
Pakistan temperature anomalies show greater interannual variability, but it follows the trend in-step with global temperature anomalies. Pakistan’s warmest year occurred was 1941 in the 20th century, according to CRU data, while 1998 was the warmest year in the global record.
The record of Pakistan shows warming trend from 1901 to 1937. This warming is non-significant. From 1938 to 1948, there is a sharp increase, thereafter a cooling trend upto 1970. After that the temperatures remained normal with small cycles of warming upto 1998. From 1998 the temperatures again began to raise continuously upto the latest records available with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
Temperature increased in the last century at the rate 0.057 C per decade in Pakistan. The total change in air temperature is 0.57 C from 1901 to 2000. The warming signal is significant at 99% level. The rate of warming from 1938 to 1948 was 0.2 C per decade, while the recent rate of warming since 1998 is higher than 0.2 C per decade which is evident from the in-situ data records of PMD. There was a cooling trend from 1949 to 1970 which is non-significant; thereafter the warming shoots up.
