Yield means the harvested production per hectare for the area under cultivation. [FAO,
http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC/metadata)
Methodology:
Average change over a 10-year period of annual average yield of priority crops (and livestock):
. priority crops (NCCP): wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize
. Calculate the average annual yield for each crop 2010-2020 (baseline values)
. Calculate the average yield for each crop over a 10-year period (mid-term eval: 2015-2025; end-term eval: 2020-2030)
. Calculate the change (%) when comparing to the baseline values
. Calculate the average change (%) for all 5 priority crops
Livestock: further information to add (no data on livestock productivity /meat or milk per ha or livestock unit-TBC)
| Scale | Baseline year | Baseline value | Target year | Target value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | ||||
| Azad Jammu and Kashmir | ||||
| Balochistan | ||||
| Gilgit−Baltistan | ||||
| Islamabad Capital Territory | ||||
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | ||||
| Punjab | 2021 | 0 | 2030 | 100% |
| Sindh |
Potential trends
. Projections / Without measures: IPCC report/chapter 5: - 5 to – 7% by 2040 (wheat productivity) assessed (Pakistan); common estimates : - 15%; projections to gather
. Potential targets (in a changing climate / with measures): SDG objective, ie X2 (TBC)
The 1998-2002 droughts, some of the longest and most severe at national scale, resulted in yield reductions of major crops by up to 10% and the death of 2 million animals (S. Ahmad et al., 2004; Waseem et al., 2021).
Average 2020-2030 compared to average 2010-2020: + 100% (SDG target, see below) / National objectives (not climate-related): SDG objective (SDG indicator 2.3): target for Pakistan = X2 by 2030 (crop yield)
